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| 1 | 气候系统中临界转变的研究进展与展望显示文摘气候系统属于复杂系统,可以存在双(多)稳态。当系统的控制参数处于临界点附近时,控制参数的微小变化或者外界施加的微小干扰,可能导致系统状态由一种稳态不可逆地突变到另一种稳态,发生临界转变。系统梳理了气候系统中临界转变的基础理论和主要研究内容,探讨了其研究态势,并提出了现有研究存在的问题和重点研究方向。结果表明:①现有研究内容主要聚焦于不同时空尺度气候子系统的临界转变现象及其研究方法、临界转变的驱动因素和形成机制、临界转变的早期预警信号及其检测方法;②气候系统中临界转变的研究表现出以尺度拓展、学科交叉、级联效应、综合集成和人类响应等为主要特点的研究态势;③现有研究存在的问题包括:基础概念的认知和使用有待统一和规范,数据可获取性和定量分析模型的准确性有待提升,临界转变及其潜在气候风险研究有待深化;④我国未来的研究应重点关注临界转变与我国关键生态安全屏障、区域发展格局以及人类安全与福祉的关系等领域。 | 尹彩春 赵文武 李琰 李冬冬 | 2021 | 地球科学进展2021，36，12： | 2 |
| 2 | Tradeoffanalysis of the pork supply and food security under the influence of African swine fever and the COVID-19 outbreak in China显示文摘China is the world’s largest consumer of pork and grains.However,African swine fever(ASF)and the COVID-19 outbreak have greatly impacted the pork supply and food security in China.How can food security and the pork supply be ensured under the dual impacts of COVID-19 and ASF?This is a major problem to be urgently solved by the Chinese government.This study indicated that the main pork production and sales areas in China were separated,which reflected the spatial imbalance between the supply and demand.The total area of suitable selected sites for pig farms in China is 21.5 million ha.If only the areas with levels of high and moderate suitability are considered as potential sites for pig farms,the potential pork production can reach 56.1 million tons in China,which is slightly lower than demand.Due to the impact of the ASF epidemic,the food consumed by pigs has been reduced by 34.7 million tons.However,with increasing pork productivity in the future,the self-sufficiency rate of grains may further decline.On the premise that the quality of people’s life is not affected,the diversification of meat supply channels should be realized in an orderly and sustainable way,which might alleviate the pressure on food supply.This study provides a theoretical reference for the spatiotemporal layout of the swine industry and addresses the issue of food security in China under the influence of ASF and the COVID-19 outbreak. | Huizong Yao Chuanfu Zang Xiaoxing Zuo Yuyang Xian Yongquan Lu Yutong Huang Xianbing Li | 2022 | Geography and Sustainability2022，3，1： | 1 |
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