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| 1 | Liver cancer incidence and mortality in China: Temporal trends and projections to 2030显示文摘Objective: Liver cancer is one of the most common cancers and major cause of cancer deaths in China,which accounts for over 50% of new cases and deaths worldwide.The systematic liver cancer statistics including of projection through 2030 could provide valuable information for prevention and control strategies in China,and experience for other countries.Methods: The burden of liver cancer in China in 2014 was estimated using 339 cancer registries' data selected from Chinese National Cancer Center(NCC).Incident cases of 22 cancer registries were applied for temporal trends from 2000 to 2014.The burden of liver cancer through 2030 was projected using age-period-cohort model.Results: About 364,800 new cases of liver cancer(268,900 males and 95,900 females) occurred in China,and about 318,800 liver cancer deaths(233,500 males and 85,300 females) in 2014.Western regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates.Incidence and mortality rates decreased by about 2.3% and 2.6% per year during the period of 2000-2014,respectively,and would decrease by more than 44% between 2014 and 2030 in China.The young generation,particularly for those aged under 40 years,showed a faster down trend.Conclusions: Based on the analysis,incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030,but the burden of liver cancer is still serious in China,especially in rural and western areas.Most cases of liver cancer in China can be prevented through vaccination and more prevention efforts should be focused on high risk groups. | Rongshou Zheng Chunfeng Qu Siwei Zhang Hongmei Zeng Kexin Sun Xiuying Gu Changfa Xia Zhixun Yang He Li Wenqiang Wei Wanqing Chen Jie He | 2018 | Chinese Journal of Cancer Research2018，30，6： | 132 |
| 2 | Current status and future tendency of lake eutrophication in China显示文摘Current trophic status and trend of Chinese freshwater lakes were investigated in this study. The results showed that all lakes studied were commonly undergoing the eutrophication process, water quality decreased and lake's ecosystem is being declined. Most of the urban lakes are facing serious eutrophication. Many medium-sized lakes are in metrophic or eutrophic status, some local water are even approaching the hypertrophic level. The famous five freshwater lakes in China have entered into eutrophication in the condition of higher nutrient load. Lake Taihu, Hongze and Caohu are already in eutrophic state. Eutrophic lakes are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Yungui plateau. Lake eutrophication developed rapidly. Among the 34 lakes studied in 1970's, most of lakes were in the mesotrophic status,mesotrophic water area accounted for 91.8%. With the nine year of 1978-1987 the area percentage of oligotrophic lakes decreased from 3.2% to 0.53%, and that of eutrophic lakes increased from 5.0% to 55.01%. Recent data showed 57.5% lakes were in eutrophic and hypertrophic status of the 40 surveyed lakes.Eutrophic trend of Lake Taihu, Chaohu and Xuanwu in the region of the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was predicated using the ecological stress model. The results showed that in 2008 Lake Taihu, Chaohu and Xuanwu might be of eutrophication, eutrophication and hypertrophication, respectively if no control measurement is taken. Provided the pollution water treatment rate is 60% in 2030, approximately 30 billion ton pollution water would still be discharged directly in the lakes. Therefore, in 2030 the urban lakes in China might be eutrophication or hypertrophication, and most of the medium-sized lakes at the urban-rural fringe might be in eutrophication or hypertrophication. The famous five biggest freshwater lakes in China might be eutrophication if control countermeasures are taken as now.Lake eutrophication has become a serious environmental problem in China. Based on the domestic and foreign experiences of the eutrophic control technologies, both nutrient pollution control and lake ecological restoration should be carried out and this may be the guidance for the eutrophic control of lakes in China. | JIN Xiangcan, XU Qiujin & HUANG Changzhu Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China | 2005 | Science China(Life Sciences)2005，48，z2： | 68 |
| 3 | Breast cancer incidence and mortality in women in China: temporal trends and projections to 2030显示文摘Objective:Breast cancer was the most common cancer and the fifth cause of cancer deaths among women in China in 2015.The evaluation of the long-term incidence and mortality trends and the prediction of the future burden of breast cancer could provide valuable information for developing prevention and control strategies.Methods:The burden of breast cancer in China in 2015 was estimated by using qualified data from 368 cancer registries from the National Central Cancer Registry.Incident cases and deaths in 22 cancer registries were used to assess the time trends from 2000 to 2015.A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the burden of breast cancer to 2030.Results:Approximately 303,600 new cases of breast cancer(205,100 from urban areas and 98,500 from rural areas)and 70,400 breast cancer deaths(45,100 from urban areas and 24,500 from rural areas)occurred in China in 2015.Urban regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates.The most common histological subtype of breast cancer was invasive ductal carcinoma,followed by invasive lobular carcinoma.The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates increased by 3.3%and 1.0%per year during 2000–2015,and were projected to increase by more than 11%until 2030.Changes in risk and demographic factors between 2015 and 2030 in cases are predicted to increase by approximately 13.3%and 22.9%,whereas deaths are predicted to increase by 13.1%and 40.9%,respectively.Conclusions:The incidence and mortality of breast cancer continue to increase in China.There are no signs that this trend will stop by 2030,particularly in rural areas.Effective breast cancer prevention strategies are therefore urgently needed in China. | Shaoyuan Lei Rongshou Zheng Siwei Zhang Ru Chen Shaoming Wang Kexin Sun Hongmei Zeng Wenqiang Wei Jie He | 2021 | Cancer Biology & Medicine2021，18，3： | 53 |
| 4 | 分割放射治疗中剂量、时间因素的生物学基础显示文摘The biology rationale for radiotherapy in the treatment of malignant disease is based on repair, repopulation,reoxygenation and cell cycle redistribution. Various aspects of the roles of the 4R’ are discussed, including in determining the sensitivity of tumors and normal tissue tolerances. An improvement in therapeutic ratio may derive from reducing the dose per fraction and minimizing the overall treatmemt duration. Some methods have developed to predict the response of normal and tumor tissues before radiotherapy. The parameters of cell survival at 2Gy(SF2) was correlated with clinical outcome. There is reasons to suppose that the pretreatment tumor LI and Tpot mat be good predictors for tumor repopulation kinetics. This review also discussed the rationale for the use of LQ model in fractionated radiotherapy. | 冯炎 | 1995 | 中华放射肿瘤学杂志1995，4，2： | 42 |
| 5 | An Effective Method for Correcting the Seasonal-Interannual Prediction of Summer Climate Anomaly显示文摘An effective method was proposed for correcting the seasonal-interannual prediction of the summer climate anomaly. The predictive skill can be substantially improved by applying the method to the seasonal interannual prediction carried out by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Thus the method has the potential to improve the operational summer climate predictions. | 王会军 周广庆 赵彦 | 2000 | Advances in Atmospheric Sciences2000，17，2： | 47 |
| 6 | Advances in prognostic factors in acute pancreatitis:a mini-review显示文摘BACKGROUND:Early assessment of the severity of acute pancreatitis is essential to the proper management of the disease.It is dependent on the criteria of the Atlanta classification system.DATA SOURCES:PubMed search of recent relevant articles was performed to identify information about the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.RESULTS:The scoring systems included the Ranson's or Glasgow's criteria ≥3,the APACHE II classification system ≥8,and the Balthazar's criteria ≥4 according to the computed tomography enhanced scanning findings.The single factors on admission included age >65 years,obesity,hemoconcentration(>44%),abnormal chest X-ray,creatinine >2 mg/dl,C-reactive protein>150 mg/dl,procalcitonin >1.8 ng/ml,albumin <2.5 mg/dl,calcium <8.5 mg/dl,early hyperglycemia,increased intra-abdominal pressure,macrophage migration inhibitory factor,or a combination of IL-10 >50 pg/ml with calcium <6.6 mg/dl.CONCLUSION:The prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis is largely based on well defined multiple factor scoring systems as well as several single risk factors. | Theodoros E Pavlidis Efstathios T Pavlidis Athanasios K Sakantamis | 2010 | Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Diseases International2010，9，5： | 25 |
| 7 | Tissue factor in predicted severe acute pancreatitis显示文摘AIM: To study tissue factor (TF) in acute pancreatitis and evaluate the role of TF as a predictive marker of severity. METHODS: Forty-nine consecutive patients admitted to Lund University Hospital, fulfilling the criteria of predicted severe acute pancreatitis (AP), were recruited prospectively between 2002 and 2004. Blood samples for TF analyses were drawn at inclusion in the study and 12 h, 1 d and 3 d later. RESULTS: Twenty-seven patients developed mild AP, and 22 patients severe AP. At inclusion in the study, the groups were comparable with respect to gender, aetiology, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ score, and duration of pain. At inclusion in the study and at 12 h, TF was higher in the severe AP group (P = 0.035 and P = 0.049, respectively). After 1 and 3 d, no differences in TF levels were noted. Interleukin (IL)-6 was significantly higher in the severe AP group at all of the studied time points. C-reactive protein (CRP) was significantly higher in the AP group at 1 and 3 d. In receiver operating characteristic-curves, the area under the curve (AUC) for TF was 0.679 (P = 0.035) at inclusion in the study, and a cut off level for TF of 40 pg/mL showed a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 67%, whereas corresponding AUC for IL-6 was 0.775, P = 0.001, and for CRP was 0.653. IL-6 showed better AUC-values than TF at all time points studied. CONCLUSION: TF-levels are raised early in severe AP. TF as an early predictive marker of severe AP is superior to CRP, but inferior to IL-6. | Ellen Andersson Jakob Axelsson Gunilla Eckerwall Daniel Ansari Roland Andersson | 2010 | World Journal of Gastroenterology2010，16，48： | 26 |
| 8 | A new approach for B-cell epitope prediction in viral proteins显示文摘Prediction of epitopes in viral proteins is helpful for the design of immunogenicpeptides, new generation of vaccines and diagnostic reagents. Unfortunately, there are atleast two constraints on the interpretation of the earlier predictive methods. In the firstplace, the earlier plots were based on experimental findings in general proteins, and | 吴玉章 朱锡华 | 1995 | Chinese Science Bulletin1995，40，9： | 25 |
| 9 | Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and atmospheric predictability research显示文摘Because atmosphere itself is a nonlinear system and there exist some problems using the linearized equations to study the initial error growth, in this paper we try to use the error nonlinear growth theory to discuss its evolution, based on which we first put forward a new concept: nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent. It is quite different from the classic Lyapunov exponent because it may characterize the finite time error local average growth and its value depends on the initial condition, initial error, variables, evolution time, temporal and spatial scales. Based on its definition and the at-mospheric features, we provide a reasonable algorithm to the exponent for the experimental data, obtain the atmospheric initial error growth in finite time and gain the maximal prediction time. Lastly, taking 500 hPa height field as example, we discuss the application of the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent in the study of atmospheric predictability and get some reliable results: atmospheric predictability has a distinct spatial structure. Overall, predictability shows a zonal distribution. Prediction time achieves the maximum over tropics, the second near the regions of Antarctic, it is also longer next to the Arctic and in subtropics and the mid-latitude the predictability is lowest. Particularly speaking, the average prediction time near the equation is 12 days and the maximum is located in the tropical Indian, Indonesia and the neighborhood, tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, on these regions the prediction time is about two weeks. Antarctic has a higher predictability than the neighboring latitudes and the prediction time is about 9 days. This feature is more obvious on Southern Hemispheric summer. In Arctic, the predictability is also higher than the one over mid-high latitudes but it is not pronounced as in Antarctic. Mid-high latitude of both Hemispheres (30°S―60°S, 30°―60°N) have the lowest predictability and the mean prediction time is just 3―4 d. In addition, predictability varies with the seasons. Most regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the predictability in winter is higher than that in summer, especially in the mid-high latitude: North Atlantic, North Pacific and Greenland Island. However in the Southern Hemisphere, near the Antarctic regions (60°S―90°S), the corresponding summer has higher predictability than its winter, while in other areas especially in the latitudes of 30°S―60°S, the prediction does not change obviously with the seasons and the average time is 3―5 d. Both the theoretical and data computation results show that nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent and the nonlinear local error growth really may measure the predictability of the atmospheric variables in different temporal and spatial scales. | CHEN Baohua1, LI Jianping1,2 & DING Ruiqiang2 1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China 2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China | 2006 | Science China Earth Sciences2006，49，10： | 21 |
| 10 | Decision Tree Based Online Stability Assessment Scheme for Power Systems with Renewable Generations显示文摘The stochastic fluctuation of renewable energy resources has significant impact on the stability of the power system with renewable generations and results in change in stability.Therefore,it is necessary to track the changing stability of the power system with renewable generations,a task that can be performed online.This paper details the use of decision trees to predict multi-mode damping of power system integrating renewable generations with the help of wide-area measurements system(WAMS).Power systems with renewable source generation are complex with vast amounts of data being collected from WAMS.Decision trees(DTs)are employed as a means to handle vast quantities of wide-area information,which involves the mode damping information indicating the stability.A 16-generator,68-bus system with photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation is used as the test system.Remote signals obtained from phasor measurement units(PMUs)are employed as the input variables of DTs for predicting purposes.The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed predicting scheme is able to suggest the optimal course of action to remedy any near instability or unstable electromechanical oscillations even without prior knowledge of the varying output of the renewable source power. | Tong Wang Tianshu Bi Haifeng Wang Jizhen Liu | 2015 | CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems2015，1，2： | 21 |
| 11 | PBPK modeling and simulation in drug research and development显示文摘Physiologically based pharmacokinetic(PBPK) modeling and simulation can be used to predict the pharmacokinetic behavior of drugs in humans using preclinical data.It can also explore the effects of various physiologic parameters such as age,ethnicity,or disease status on human pharmacokinetics,as well as guide dose and dose regiment selection and aid drug–drug interaction risk assessment.PBPK modeling has developed rapidly in the last decade within both the field of academia and the pharmaceutical industry,and has become an integral tool in drug discovery and development.In this mini-review,the concept and methodology of PBPK modeling are briefly introduced.Several case studies were discussed on how PBPK modeling and simulation can be utilized through various stages of drug discovery and development.These case studies are from our own work and the literature for better understanding of the absorption,distribution,metabolism and excretion(ADME) of a drug candidate,and the applications to increase efficiency,reduce the need for animal studies,and perhaps to replace clinical trials.The regulatory acceptance and industrial practices around PBPK modeling and simulation is also discussed. | Xiaomei Zhuang Chuang Lu | 2016 | Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B2016，6，5： | 21 |
| 12 | Cystatin C is a biomarker for predicting acute kidney injury in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure显示文摘AIM:To investigate serum cystatin C level as an early biomarker for predicting acute kidney injury(AKI)in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF).METHODS:Fifty-six consecutive patients with hepatitis B virus-related ACLF who had normal serum creatinine(Cr)level(<1.2 mg/dL in men,or<1.1 mg/dL in women)were enrolled in the Liver Failure Treatment and Research Center of Beijing 302 Hospital between August 2011 and October 2012.Thirty patients with chronic hepatitis B(CHB)and 30 healthy controls in the same study period were also included.Measurement of serum cystatin C(CysC)was performed by a particle-enhanced immunonephelometry assay using the BN Prospec nephelometer system.The ACLF patients were followed during their hospitalization period.RESULTS:In the ACLF group,serum level of CysC was 1.1±0.4 mg/L,which was significantly higher(P<0.01)than those in the healthy controls(0.6±0.3mg/L)and CHB patients(0.7±0.2 mg/L).During the hospitalization period,eight ACLF patients developed AKI.Logistic regression analysis indicated that CysC level was an independent risk factor for AKI development(odds ratio=1.8;95%CI:1.4-2.3,P=0.021).The cutoff value of serum CysC for prediction of AKI in ACLF patients was 1.21 mg/L.The baseline CysC-based estimated glomerular filtration rate(eGFR CysC)was significantly lower than the creatinine-based eGFR(eGFR CG and eGFR MDRD)in ACLF patients with AKI,suggesting that baseline eGFR CysC represented early renal function in ACLF patients while the Cr levels were still within the normal ranges.CONCLUSION:Serum CysC provides early prediction of renal dysfunction in ACLF patients with a normal serum Cr level. | Zhi-Hong Wan Jian-Jun Wang Shao-Li You Hong-Ling Liu Bing Zhu Hong Zang Chen Li Jing Chen Shao-Jie Xin | 2013 | World Journal of Gastroenterology2013，19，48： | 20 |
| 13 | ECMWF集合预报和确定性预报对淮河流域暴雨预报的对比分析显示文摘本文运用2012年5—9月欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的集合预报系统(Ensemble Prediction System,EPS)和确定性模式(High-resolution Deterministic forecast,HDet)资料对比分析了淮河流域暴雨的预报效果。对于集合预报,主要对比了基于EPS的日降水量极端天气预报指数(Extreme Forecast Index,EFI),和改进的贝叶斯模型平均(Modified Bayesian Model Averaging,MBMA)法对降水的订正后概率。由于ROC(Relative Operating Characteristic)检验是与模式的系统性偏差无关的,所以选用ROC检验,对比了不同空报率下的TS评分,以及不同方法的相对经济价值。对比检验的结果显示,各时效预报MBMA预报效果最好,其次是HDet,EFI的预报效果最差,其中2 d内的预报HDet接近MBMA,随着预报时效的延长,MBMA相对于HDet和EFI的优势不断增强。在不同标准下确定三种方法对淮河流域暴雨预报的阈值,结果显示MBMA同样优于HDet,EFI预报效果最差。但MBMA的优势是通过增加预报偏差得到,如果将预报偏差限定为主观预报的1.37,此时MBMA的效果和HDet的效果接近。 | 董全 金荣花 代刊 康志明 | 2016 | 气象2016，42，9： | 20 |
| 14 | Prediction of shield tunneling-induced ground settlement using machine learning techniques显示文摘Predicting the tunneling-induced maximum ground surface settlement is a complex problem since the settlement depends on plenty of intrinsic and extrinsic factors.This study investigates the efficiency and feasibility of six machine learning(ML)algorithms,namely,back-propagation neural network,wavelet neural network,general regression neural network(GRNN),extreme learning machine,support vector machine and random forest(RF),to predict tunneling?induced settlement.Field data sets including geological conditions,shield operational parameters,and tunnel geometry collected from four sections of tunnel with a total of 3.93 km are used to build models.Three indicators,mean absolute error,root mean absolute error,and coefficient of determination the(7?2)are used to demonstrate the performance of each computational model.The results indicated that ML algorithms have great potential to predict tunneling-induced settlement,compared with the traditional multivariate linear regression method.GRNN and RF algorithms show the best performance among six ML algorithms,which accurately recognize the evolution of tunneling-induced settlement.The correlation between the input variables and settlement is also investigated by Pearson correlation coefficient. | Renpeng CHEN Pin ZHANG Huaina WU Zhiteng WANG Zhiquan ZHONG | 2019 | Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering2019，13，6： | 20 |
| 15 | Machine learning methods for rockburst prediction-state-of-the-art review显示文摘One of the most serious mining disasters in underground mines is rockburst phenomena.They can lead to injuries and even fatalities as well as damage to underground openings and mining equipment.This has forced many researchers to investigate alternative methods to predict the potential for rockburst occurrence.However,due to the highly complex relation between geological,mechanical and geometric parameters of the mining environment,the traditional mechanics-based prediction methods do not always yield precise results.With the emergence of machine learning methods,a breakthrough in the prediction of rockburst occurrence has become possible in recent years.This paper presents a state-ofthe-art review of various applications of machine learning methods for the prediction of rockburst potential.First,existing rockburst prediction methods are introduced,and the limitations of such methods are highlighted.A brief overview of typical machine learning methods and their main features as predictive tools is then presented.The current applications of machine learning models in rockburst prediction are surveyed,with related mechanisms,technical details and performance analysis. | Yuanyuan Pu Derek B.Apel Victor Liu Hani Mitri | 2019 | International Journal of Mining Science and Technology2019，29，4： | 19 |
| 16 | Changing trends of disease burden of gastric cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions:Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study显示文摘Objective:China is one of the countries with the heaviest burden of gastric cancer(GC)in the world.Understanding the epidemiological trends and patterns of GC in China can contribute to formulating effective prevention strategies.Methods:The data on incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)of GC in China from1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study(2019).The estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was calculated to evaluate the temporal trends of disease burden of GC,and the package Nordpred in the R program was used to perform an age-period-cohort analysis to predict the numbers and rates of incidence and mortality in the next 25 years.Results:The number of incident cases of GC increased from 317.34 thousand in 1990 to 612.82 thousand in2019,while the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)of GC decreased from 37.56 per 100,000 in 1990 to 30.64 per 100,000 in 2019,with an EAPC of-0.41[95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.77,-0.06].Pronounced temporal trends in mortality and DALYs of GC were observed.In the next 25 years,the numbers of new GC cases and deaths are expected to increase to 738.79 thousand and 454.80 thousand,respectively,while the rates of incidence and deaths should steadily decrease.The deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking were different for males and females.Conclusions:In China,despite the fact that the rates of GC have decreased during the past three decades,the numbers of new GC cases and deaths increased,and will continue to increase in the next 25 years.Additional strategies are needed to reduce the burden of GC,such as screening and early detection,novel treatments,and the prevention of risk factors. | Tongchao Zhang Hui Chen Xiaolin Yin Qiufeng He Jinyu Man Xiaorong Yang Ming Lu | 2021 | Chinese Journal of Cancer Research2021，33，1： | 19 |
| 17 | Prediction and prevention of rockburst in metal mines--A case study of Sanshandao gold mine显示文摘Rockburst is a kind of artificial earthquake induced by human activities,such as mining excavations.The mechanism of rockburst induced by mining disturbance is revealed in terms of energy in this context.For understanding the rockburst mechanism,two necessary conditions for the occurrence of rockburst are presented:(1)the rock mass has the capability to store huge amount of energy and possesses a strong bumping-prone characteristic when damaged;and(2)the geological conditions in the mining area have favorable geo-stress environments that can form high-stress concentration area and accumulate huge energy.These two conditions are also the basic criteria for prediction of rockburst.In view of energy analysis,it is observed that artificial and natural earthquakes have similar regularities in many aspects,such as the relationship between the energy value and burst magnitude.By using the relationship between energy and magnitude of natural earthquake,rockburst is predicted by disturbance energy analysis.A practical example is illustrated using the above-mentioned theorem and technique to predict rockburst in a gold mine in China.Finally,the prevention and control techniques of rockburst are also provided based on the knowledge of the rockburst mechanism. | meifeng cai | 2016 | Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering2016，8，2： | 18 |
| 18 | Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach显示文摘A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July-August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North China in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965-1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000-2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China during 1965-2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%-70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North China. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation. | FAN Ke1, LIN MeiJing1,2 & GAO YuZhong3 1 Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 2 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3 Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin 150030, China | 2009 | Science China Earth Sciences2009，52，4： | 18 |
| 19 | STUDY ON MIXED MODEL OF NEURAL NETWORK FOR FARMLAND FLOOD/DROUGHT PREDICTION显示文摘The paper concerns a flood/drought prediction model involving the continuation of time seriesof a predictand and the physical factors influencing the change of predictand.Attempt is made toconstruct the model by the neural network scheme for the nonlinear mapping relation based onmulti-input and single output.The model is found of steadily higher predictive accuracy by testingthe output from one and multiple stepwise predictions against observations and comparing theresults to those from a traditional statistical model. | 金龙 罗莹 郭光 林振山 | 1997 | Acta meteorologica Sinica1997，11，3： | 18 |
| 20 | Strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction显示文摘In order to effectively improve numerical prediction level by using current models and data, the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) is deeply studied in the present paper. A new idea to predict the prediction errors of dynamical model on the basis of historical analogue information is put forward so as to transform the dynamical prediction problem into the estimation problem of prediction errors. In terms of such an idea, a new prediction method of final analogue correction of errors (FACE) is developed. Furthermore, the FACE is applied to extra-seasonal prediction experiments on an operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation show that the FACE can to some extent reduce prediction errors, recover prediction variances, and improve prediction skills. Besides, sensitive experiments also show that predictions based on the FACE are evidently influenced by the number of analogues, analogue-selected variables and analogy metric. | REN HongLi1,2? & CHOU JiFan1 1 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China | 2007 | Science China Earth Sciences2007，50，10： | 17 |
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