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| 1 | 传染病流行病学中基本再生数与有效再生数指标的研究进展显示文摘当一种新的传染病出现时,研究者们往往会用一些流行病学指标来衡量它的传播能力,其中一类重要的指标就是基本再生数(R0)和有效再生数(Re)。然而,R0和Re的定义、计算方法和结果解释等在许多场景中被错误地理解,甚至误用。本文围绕R0和Re的定义、计算方法、两者关系、影响因素、流行病学意义、应用注意事项以及常见传染病的基本再生数等进行综述,为卫生决策部门利用R0和Re制定针对性疫情防控措施提供参考。 | 张晓宝 严丹莹 陈灿 蒋黛西 丁丞 蓝蕾 吴杰 杨仕贵 | 2021 | 中华疾病控制杂志2021，25，7： | 8 |
| 2 | 基于系统综述的新型冠状病毒肺炎与2009年H1N1流感大流行基本传染数研究显示文摘目的通过系统综述方法,基于基本传染数(R0)比较新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)与2009年H1N1流感大流行的传播能力。方法通过检索中国知网、万方数据库、维普数据库、PubMed、Embase、Web of Science、BioRxiv和MedRxiv数据库,2名审查员对COVID-19和2009年H1N1流感大流行的R0相关研究进行独立筛选、提取数据和计算,并对提取的2次疫情的R0进行系统性总结和比较。结果共纳入163篇文献(包括54篇2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行相关文章和109篇COVID-19相关文章)。COVID-19在世界流行的R0中位数为2.860(四分位数范围IQR:2.350~3.546),高于2009年H1N1流感大流行的R0中位数(1.508,IQR:1.336~1.836)。中国COVID-19的R0中位数为2.930(IQR:2.215~3.453),施行严格交通管制前COVID-19的R0中位数为3.430(IQR:2.500~4.710),高于之后的2.500(IQR:1.673~3.030)。结论COVID-19的传播能力强于2009年甲型H1N1流感。中国采取严格交通管制措施后,能够减缓COVID-19的传播。 | 陈嘉敏 邱增钊 钟舒怡 文思敏 舒跃龙 | 2020 | 疾病监测2020，35，12： | 3 |
| 3 | 新冠肺炎疫情对邮轮经济的影响机制和政策分析显示文摘为研究新冠肺炎疫情爆发对邮轮经济的影响机制,运用系统动力学理论,分析新冠肺炎疫情与邮轮产业收入的因果关系,构建因果关系图和流图,建立系统仿真方程。以A、B两国之间的邮轮市场为例,运用Vensim软件模拟疫情和邮轮产业收入的发展趋势,并进行方案模拟。仿真结果表明:出发地感染个体数量约为86324人,邮轮感染个体数量约为707人;停航措施能有效减少邮轮上感染人数,延后10天停航和延后20天停航的邮轮感染个体数量分别是现实停航时间邮轮感染个体数量的1.67倍和2.35倍,及时停航有利于控制疫情的传播,但无休止的停航有损邮轮产业收入;采取邮轮隔离措施,加强对邮轮旅客的管理以及做好邮轮在目的地港口的停靠工作,也能有效减少邮轮感染人数和目的地感染人数;采取邮轮补贴措施有利于复航后邮轮旅客数的增加,增加邮轮防控投入减少了复航后邮轮感染人数和目的地感染人数大幅增加的可能性,并且有利于邮轮产业收入的恢复。因此疫情后应当考虑及时让邮轮复航以减轻疫情对邮轮产业的打击。 | 吴琼 张永锋 | 2021 | 交通运输工程与信息学报2021，19，1： | 2 |
| 4 | A review on COVID-19 transmission,epidemiological features,prevention and vaccination显示文摘Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2)has caused hundreds of millions of infections and millions of deaths over past two years.Currently,many countries have still not been able to take the pandemic under control.In this review,we systematically summarized what we have done to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic,from the perspectives of virus transmission,public health control measures,to the development and vaccination of COVID-19 vaccines.As a virus most likely coming from bats,the SARS-CoV-2 may transmit among people via airborne,faecal-oral,vertical or foodborne routes.Ourmeta-analysis suggested that the R0 of COVID-19 was 2.9(95%CI:2.7–3.1),and the estimates in Africa and Europe could be higher.The median Rt could decrease by 23–96%following the nonpharmacological interventions,including lockdown,isolation,social distance,and face mask,etc.Comprehensive intervention and lockdown were the most effective measures to control the pandemic.According to the pooled R0 in our meta-analysis,there should be at least 93.3%(95%CI:89.9–96.2%)people being vaccinated around the world.Limited amount of vaccines and the inequity issues in vaccine allocation call for more international cooperation to achieve the antiepidemic goals and vaccination fairness. | Yuqin Zhang Gonghua Wu Shirui Chen Xu Ju Wumitijiang Yimaer Wangjian Zhang Shao Lin Yuantao Hao Jing Gu Jinghua Li | 2022 | Medical Review2022，2，1： | 2 |
| 5 | The collaboration between infectious disease modeling and public health decision-making based on the COVID-19显示文摘Public health decision-making may have great uncertainty especially in dealing with emerging infectious diseases,so it is necessary to establish a collaborative mechanism among modelers,epidemiologists,and public health decision-makers to reduce the uncertainty as much as possible.We searched the relevant studies on transmission dynamics modeling of infectious diseases,SARS,MERS,and COVID-19 as of March 1,2021 based on PubMed.We compared the key health decision-making time points of SARS,MERS,and COVID-19 prevention and control,and the publication time points of modeling research,to reveal the collaboration between infectious disease modeling and public health decision-making in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.Searching with infectious disease and mathematical model as keywords,there were 166,81 and 1289 studies on the modeling of infectious disease transmission dynamics of SARS,MERS,and COVID-19 were retrieved respectively.Based on the modeling application framework of public health practice proposed in the current study,the collaboration among modelers,epidemiologists and public health decision-makers should be strengthened in the future. | Yan Niu Zhuoyang Li Ling Meng Shengnan Wang Zeyu Zhao Tie Song Jianhua Lu Tianmu Chen Qun Li Xuan Zou | 2021 | Journal of Safety Science and Resilience2021，2，2： | 1 |
| 6 | Global Top Ten Engineering Achievements 2021显示文摘Engineering is a direct productive force for mankind to change the world.Throughout the ages,mankind has created countless amazing engineering achievements,promoting profound changes in the whole society and pushing human civilization to a new higher stage[1].To motivate engineering progress and innovation and draw global attention to engineering science and technology. | Junzhi Cui | 2021 | Engineering2021，7，12： | 0 |
| 7 | 新冠肺炎疫情防控中非药物干预措施与疫苗接种的效果分析显示文摘目的 描述英国、美国、德国、瑞典和俄罗斯的非药物干预措施(non-pharmaceutical interventions,NPIs)和疫苗接种对新冠肺炎疫情流行特征的影响,并比较各国防控措施的有效性。方法 在Our World in Data数据库收集2020年1月1日—2021年12月31日期间上述5个国家的疫情数据,通过绘制时间趋势图并计算Pearson相关系数,比较5个国家每百人新增检测数、牛津-紧缩指数、每百人完全接种新冠疫苗人数等3个指标与七日滚动病死率的关系,探究各国在控制传染源、切断传播途径、保护易感人群方面实施的NPIs和疫苗接种的效果。结果 5个国家的新增检测数在疫情初期快速上升,之后保持较高的检测水平,而各国七日滚动病死率在疫情初期达到峰值后下降,除俄罗斯外,其余4国每百人新增检测数与七日滚动病死率的相关系数在-0.471--0.256之间,均为负值;各国紧缩指数在疫情初期均升高,形势缓和后有不同程度的下降,各国紧缩指数与七日滚动病死率的相关系数在0.156-0.486之间,均为正值;随着疫苗完全接种率的升高,新冠肺炎病死率有所下降,除俄罗斯外,其余4国每百人完全接种疫苗人数与七日滚动病死率的相关系数均为负值(-0.817--0.289)。结论 NPIs和疫苗覆盖是新冠肺炎疫情防控的有效措施,各国应坚持二者结合控制疫情。 | 付张萍 吴昀效 朱正 闫温馨 商伟静 康良钰 刘珏 刘民 | 2022 | 中国国境卫生检疫杂志2022，45，4： | 0 |
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