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| 1 | 同震滑坡发生概率研究——新一代地震滑坡危险性模型显示文摘地震滑坡发生真实概率研究基本空白。本研究创新性的利用贝叶斯概率方法与机器模型开展了中国地震滑坡危险性真实概率研究,制作了第一代中国地震滑坡危险性概率图。基于9个地震案例开展研究,包括1999年台湾集集、2005年克什米尔、2008年汶川、2010年玉树、2013年芦山、2013岷县、2014鲁甸、2015尼泊尔、2017九寨沟地震,这9次地震中7次发生在中国,2005年克什米尔与2015尼泊尔地震均发生在中国邻区,可以更好的控制模型预测精度。这些地震事件均有详细完整的,利用面要素标识的地震滑坡数据,包括306 435处真实的地震滑坡记录。考虑到真实的地震滑坡发生区域,滑坡面积规模的差别,滑坡与不滑样本的比例等因素,共选取了5 117 000个模型训练样本。选择绝对高程、相对高差、坡度、坡向、斜坡曲率、坡位、地形湿度指数、土地覆盖类型、植被覆盖度、与断层距离、地层、年均降水量、地震动峰值加速度共13个地震滑坡影响因子。采用贝叶斯概率方法与机器学习模型相结合,建立地震滑坡发生的多因素影响模型,得到各个连续因子的权重与分类因子的各个分类的权重。再将模型应用到整个中国研究区,地震动峰值加速度因子为触发因子。分别考虑研究区在经历不同地震动峰值加速度(0. 1~1 g,每0. 1 g一个结果,共10个结果)下的地震滑坡发生真实概率。此外,还结合中国地震动峰值加速度分布图,得到了中国地震动峰值加速度背景下的地震滑坡发生真实概率分布。 | 许冲 徐锡伟 周本刚 沈玲玲 | 2019 | 工程地质学报2019，27，5： | 23 |
| 2 | “情景-应对”型理论体系的发展及其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用探讨显示文摘'情景-应对'型理论体系基于事件静、动态情景分析生成应急决策方案,已成为重大突发事件应急决策的基本范式。近年来,'情景-应对'研究理论的迅速发展极大地拓宽了其应用范围,逐渐被引入地震应急中,在一定程度上能够弥补传统'预测-应对'模式的不足,为震后高效行动及充分应对提供有效支撑。本文从情景识别、情景推演及应对处置方案生成等方面详细介绍了'情景-应对'理论体系发展中涉及的关键技术,阐述了其在地震灾害应急管理中的应用。通过对已有研究的回顾,分析讨论了该领域的最新进展及需进一步解决的问题。 | 陈波 王芳 肖本夫 | 2021 | 震灾防御技术2021，16，4： | 10 |
| 3 | 2001—2017年尼泊尔中部地区滑坡变化及其影响因素显示文摘滑坡是造成尼泊尔巨大经济损失和人员伤亡的主要地质灾害。目前,遥感方法对滑坡信息的识别、提取和监测具有巨大的潜力。基于随机森林模型的平均不纯度减少算法,选用NDBI、MNDWI、NDVI和红波段4个参数对Landsat遥感数据进行滑坡信息的初提取,同时借助目视解译得到滑坡的精提取结果。采用数据格网的方法将研究区划分为0.05°×0.05°的滑坡格网,并在不同土地覆盖类型中,对滑坡与降雨和温度进行偏相关分析。研究表明:1)尼泊尔中部地区的滑坡主要分布在海拔1000~2500 m,坡度20°~40°的范围内;2)相比其他土地覆盖类型,林地中滑坡数目与降雨的偏相关系数为0.6715,而在草地中滑坡数目与温度的偏相关性最强,其偏相关系数为0.4361;3)研究区片麻岩、页岩分布广泛,加之地震、断裂带、人类活动的影响,破坏边坡的稳定性,极易造成滑坡灾害。 | 孙国庆 陈方 于博 王宁 | 2020 | 中国科学院大学学报(中英文)2020，37，3： | 6 |
| 4 | 2018年日本北海道Mw 6.6级地震滑坡分布分析显示文摘2018年9月6日,日本北海道地区发生Mw 6.6级地震,地震触发了大量滑坡。基于福卫5卫星影像,在Google Earth平台上采用人工目视进行滑坡解译,把解译的滑坡导入ArcGIS,根据DEM和地质图在ArcGIS上选择高程、坡度、坡向、地震烈度、地层、震中距6个影响因子进行统计分析。研究结果表明:在187 km 2的范围内,解译滑坡4196个,滑坡总面积15.98 km^2,LND为22.44个/km^2,LAP为0.086;滑坡在高程130~180 m、坡度10°~20°、坡向120°~180°、地震烈度7度~7.5度、地层N 2sn、震中距10~12 km内分布数量最多,面积最大。 | 鲍鹏鹏 崔玉龙 许冲 傅贵 胡俊宏 陈孝柱 | 2020 | 河南城建学院学报2020，29，2： | 5 |
| 5 | An Updated Database and Spatial Distribution of Landslides Triggered by the Milin, Tibet M_(w)6.4 Earthquake of 18 November 2017显示文摘The M_(w)6.4 earthquake on November 18, 2017 in Milin County, Nyingchi City, Tibet triggered thousands of landslides. By comparing visual interpretation of satellite images acquired shortly before and after the earthquake and field survey, we have created a new landslide database which includes 3 130 coseismic landslides, each with an area of 0.01 to 4.35 km^(2). Six factors(elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance from the epicenter and distance from the seismogenic fault) were selected to correlate with the coseismic landslides. In addition, the area and density of landslides were counted as indicators. Results show that most landslides occurred where the elevation is between 2 000–3 000 m, with a 40°–50° slope angle and S, E or SE slope aspect, schist or gneiss lithologies, 10–15 km from the epicenter, and 5 km within the seismogenic fault. Most of the landslides, triggered by the M_(w)6.4 earthquake, are concentrated near the seismogenic fault rather than at the epicenter, indicating that the seismogenic structure is more influential than the location of the epicenter. Our findings may differ from other landslide database due to temporal image acquisition, interference from weather, and image resolution. | Yuandong Huang Chong Xu Xiaolong Zhang Chunji Xue Shiyuan Wang | 2021 | Journal of Earth Science2021，32，5： | 4 |
| 6 | 基于尼泊尔Mw7.8地震的喜马拉雅俯冲带滑坡分布规律研究显示文摘全球多数大地震发生在俯冲带地区,然而对于俯冲带地震诱发的滑坡研究并不多见。2015年4月25日尼泊尔廓尔喀县发生了Mw7.8地震,为喜马拉雅俯冲带近70年来的首次强震,震源机制解表明为低角度逆冲型的俯冲带地震,触发了大量滑坡、崩塌等地震次生灾害。通过遥感解译和现场调查获取2072组地震滑坡信息,揭示滑坡多数分布在海拔1000m^3000m之间,高喜马拉雅与低喜马拉雅的过渡区域,基本沿主中央逆冲断裂断裂(MCT)展布,地势落差大。早期断裂活动频繁,由中、高级变质岩和新生代浅色花岗岩变为古生代沉积岩和少量岩浆岩组成的逆冲岩席,易于发生滑坡、崩塌等地质灾害。滑坡坡度值优势分布区间为35°~40°,与中国西部地区一致,说明地震滑坡坡度分布与大的构造背景相关性较小,可能受局部地形地貌、地层岩性等因素控制。坡向值的优势分布区间为120°~200°,与水平形变场关系紧密。以尼泊尔地震滑坡为例探讨了喜马拉雅俯冲带地震滑坡的特征:滑坡点明显呈相对较宽的矩形区域展布,受深部逆冲推覆构造低倾角的断层破裂面影响较大,滑坡全部位于上盘,由于地震运动的惯性作用,在坡向与上盘逆冲方向一致的斜坡上容易诱发地震滑坡。 | 刘亢 李海兵 李亦纲 王金萍 | 2019 | 地质学报2019，93，10： | 4 |
| 7 | Interpretation of the Spatial Distribution Characteristics of the Co-seismic Landslides Induced by the 1920 Haiyuan M81/2 Earthquake Using Remote Sensing Images显示文摘Analyzing the spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake-induced secondary disasters based on advanced techniques is significantly important,especially in understanding the process of strong earthquakes in the Loess Pateau.Using ArcGIS,this study interprets multi-temporal high-resolution satellite images,field investigation data,and historical seismic records.Major conclusions are obtained as follows:①Landslides induced by the Haiyuan earthquake are mainly distributed in the intersection area of the end of the Haiyuan fault and Liupanshan fault,as indicated by multiple dense distribution centers;②The landslide distribution of the Haiyuan Earthquake is determined by the distance to the fault,topographic relief,slope,lithology,and other factors.In detail,the closer the distance to the fault,the greater the density of the landslide.The greater the slope and relief of the terrain,the greater the density and the smaller the average area of a landslide.Compared with tertiary strata,Quaternary strata has a larger average area,and the density of the landslides is smaller;③The density curve of the death toll in the Haiyuan earthquake can be used as a reference for the distribution of co-seismic landslides.Several Haiyuan co-seismic landslides are distributed in the Tongwei landslide area;however,the major landslides here are induced by the 1718 Tongwei earthquake rather than the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake;④The co-seismic landslides of the Haiyuan earthquake exhibits the“slope effect”in the south-west plate of Haiyuan fault,presenting the dominant sliding direction towards the fault and epicenter;however,the“slope effect”is not evident in the northeast plate of the fault. | ZHANG Weiheng XU Yueren DU Peng LI Wenqiao TIAN Qinjian CHEN Lize | 2020 | Earthquake Research in China2020，34，4： | 1 |
| 8 | 基于GIS和CF模型的2018年日本北海道Mw6.6地震滑坡危险性评价显示文摘为了给地震区域的灾后重建和防灾减灾工作提供重要帮助,同时给类似滑坡灾害危险性评价提供参考,开展对2018年日本北海道地震的研究。2018-09-06日本北海道厚真町发生Mw6.6级地震,触发了大量山体滑坡,造成人员伤亡和重大财产损失,引发社会广泛关注。基于0.3 m空间分辨率的Pleiades-1卫星震前震后高清遥感卫星影像进行滑坡目视解译,共圈定12586处滑坡。选取高程、坡度、坡向、曲率、TPI(坡位指数)、距水系距离、距道路距离、距震中距离、地层岩性9个因子作为滑坡的影响因子。基于GIS平台,应用确定性系数(CF)模型开展北海道地震滑坡危险性评价,评价结果将研究区分为极低危险区、低危险区、中危险区、高危险区、极高危险区五类,得出滑坡危险性评价区划图,并利用ROC曲线对评价结果精度进行检验,正确率为85.3%,表明基于确定性系数模型得出的滑坡危险性评价结果与实际滑坡结果比较吻合。 | 吴帅 崔玉龙 鲍鹏鹏 袁文华 | 2022 | 黑龙江工程学院学报2022，36，2： | 1 |
| 9 | Landslides Triggered by the 3 August 2014 Ludian(China) Mw 6.2 Earthquake: An Updated Inventory and Analysis of Their Spatial Distribution显示文摘The 3 August 2014 Ludian, Yunnan, China Mw 6.2(Ms 6.5) earthquake triggered a large number of coseismic landslides. Based on pre-and post-quake high-resolution optical satellite images, this study established a new, complete and objective database of these landslides with field investigations. The updated inventory shows that this earthquake triggered at least 12 817 landslides with a total occupation area of 16.33 km2, covering a nearly circular area about 600 km2, which all exceed those in our previous work and other relevant studies. In addition, we used this database to examine the correlations of the landslides with topographic, geologic, and seismic factors. Results show that the landslides occurred mostly at places with slope gradients 10o–40o, showing an increase tendency with steeper slopes. Affected by the propagation direction of the earthquake rupture, the eastward-facing slopes are more prone to landsliding. The differences between the landslide susceptibility in different strata indicate that lithology is also an important controlling factor. The landslide density of the places with peak ground acceleration(PGA) greater than 0.16 g is obviously larger than those with PGA less than 0.16 g. Meanwhile, the greater the distance from the epicenter, the lower the susceptibility of landslides is. This study suggests that when using satellite images to create coseismic landslide inventories, it should meet certain conditions, including high resolution, whole coverage, and timely data collection. The correct criteria of coseismic landslide inventorying also should be followed. Such inventories can provide a reliable basis for hazard assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides and other quantitative studies. | Weiying Wu Chong Xu Xiaoqing Wang Yingying Tian Fei Deng | 2020 | Journal of Earth Science2020，31，4： | 0 |
| 10 | 区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估研究进展和展望显示文摘地震滑坡是最常见的地震次生地质灾害之一,不仅带来环境恶化,通常还造成严重的人员伤亡和财产损失,因此备受关注。为了解地震滑坡研究发展趋势,凝练地震滑坡定量评估科学问题,文章对区域地震滑坡定量评估起源、发展现状、存在的问题及未来发展进行了系统总结。研究结果表明:(1)区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估研究兴起于20世纪80年代,经过50多年学者的不懈努力,取得了丰硕的成果。区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估研究面临着新的社会需求。(2)地震滑坡是地震动力、地质特征和地貌条件等多因素耦合作用的结果,地震滑坡现象只有考虑成因机理与动力过程方可解释,地震滑坡成因机理研究主要集中于强震条件下斜坡的动力响应规律分析。(3)地震滑坡发育特征、成因机理以及数据库建设等基础研究推动了地震滑坡灾害风险定量评估研究。区域地震滑坡灾害风险定量评估包括地震滑坡危险性定量评估、地震滑坡易损性定量评估、地震滑坡危害性定量评估等内容。(4)在区域地震滑坡灾害定量评估方面,还需要进一步探索区域地震滑坡灾害形成的系统性和时空分布规律性、改进和完善区域地震滑坡灾害风险定量评估方法、开拓区域地震滑坡灾害防治战略规划。 | 白仙富 杨志全 胡斌 杨理臣 戴雨芡 杨悦 | 2023 | 地震工程学报2023，45，6： | 0 |
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