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| 1 | 东亚夏季风变化机理的模拟和未来变化的预估:成绩和问题、机遇和挑战显示文摘东亚夏季风对于我国东部气候具有重要影响,呈现出多种时间尺度的变化特征。在理解东亚夏季风过去和当前的变化机理、预测和预估其未来变化等方面,气候系统模式发挥着不可替代的作用。但是当前的气候模式在东亚夏季风的模拟上尚存在诸多不足,这使得其模拟结果存在不确定性,既制约了我们对过去和当前季风变化机理的准确理解,又降低了未来预测预估结果的可信度。关于造成季风模拟偏差的原因,既涉及模式本身的性能问题,又与模拟系统的构建、强迫资料的误差、乃至我们当前对季风变化规律自身的认知水平有关。本文以时间尺度为序,从气候态、日变化、年际变率、年代际变率、长期气候变化和未来预估等季风学界关注的热点问题角度,本着总结成绩、归纳问题、寻找机遇、面对挑战的目的,从七个方面系统总结了当前气候模式的水平,归纳了其主要偏差特征,讨论了影响模式性能的可能因素。内容涉及模式分辨率和地形效应、对流和云辐射效应的作用、与季风相关的热带海气相互作用关键过程、内部变率(太平洋年代际振荡)、自然变率(太阳辐照度变化和火山气溶胶强迫)和人为辐射强迫(人为温室气体和气溶胶排放)对季风变化的不同影响、热力和动力过程及气候敏感度对季风环流(副高)和降水预估不确定性的影响等。最后从优化参数、实现场地观测和过程模拟的协同、发展高分辨和对流解析模式等角度,讨论了提升东亚夏季风模拟能力的技术途径。 | 周天军 吴波 郭准 何超 邹立维 陈晓龙 张丽霞 满文敏 李普曦 李东欢 姚隽琛 黄昕 张文霞 左萌 陆静文 孙宁 | 2018 | 大气科学2018，42，4： | 25 |
| 2 | 对流可分辨尺度集合预报对河南“21·7”极端降水事件可预报性研究显示文摘2021年7月19~21日,河南省遭遇了极端降水事件,小时最大降雨量突破历史极值,高达201.9mm h^(-1).本文设计了两组对流可分辨尺度集合预报:一是以NCEP GEFS为初始和侧边界条件(命名为CEFS_GEFS),二是以ERA5为初始和侧边界条件并结合时间滞后方法的集合预报(命名为CEFS_ERA).对于24h累计降水,两组对流尺度集合预报都能较好地再现太行山附近的强降水,但多数成员对发生在郑州的极端降水预报存在明显的位置偏差.对于小时降水,一些好的成员能够模拟极端降水事件的演变和传播,但所有集合成员都低估了极端的小时降雨量,位置误差从几十到几百公里不等,这主要是因为模式尚无法准确预报中尺度低涡与地形阻挡形成急流的辐合位置有关.总的来说,此类城市尺度郑州极端小时降水的可预报性较低,因为极端事件的发生需要许多有利条件同时发生,预报模型尚无法准确预报每一个中小尺度过程.客观评分上,CEFS_GEFS的表现优于CEFS_ERA,这主要是因为大尺度降水位置取决于天气尺度环境,CEFS_ERA预报的离散度不够,导致最终降水整体偏西,概率预报误差较大.在上述分析基础上,考虑到预报存在系统位置偏差,提出了一种新的基于邻域的降水概率预报方法,与传统的降水概率相比,新方法显著提升了日降雨和小时降雨的概率预报技巧. | 朱科锋 张晨悦 薛明 杨楠 | 2022 | 中国科学:地球科学2022，52，10： | 2 |
| 3 | Predictability and skill of convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems in predicting the record-breaking“21·7”extreme rainfall event in Henan Province,China显示文摘During 19–21 July 2021,an extreme rainfall event occurred in Henan Province,China,during which a recordbreaking maximum hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm was recorded in Zhengzhou at 09 UTC July 20.In this study,the predictability of this extreme rainfall event is investigated using two convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems(CEFSs):one initialized from NCEP GEFS(named CEFS_GEFS)and the other initialized from time-lagged ERA5 data(named CEFS_ERA).Both are able to reproduce the daily heavy rainfall along the Taihang Mountains,but most members have significant position biases for the extreme rainfall in Zhengzhou.For the hourly rainfall,a few members are able to capture the evolution and propagation of extreme rainfall.However,all ensemble members underestimate the extreme hourly rainfall and have position errors of a few tens to a few hundreds of kilometers.Such results suggest that the predictability of the extreme hourly rainfall at the accuracy of city scale in Zhengzhou is low,especially by deterministic forecasting models,and the occurrence of the extreme requires many favorable conditions to happen simultaneously.In terms of the Brier score,CEFS_GEFS performs better than CEFS_ERA.The latter lacks spread,especially in regions with scarce rain,resulting in less dispersion in precipitation distributions and larger probability forecast error.When a neighborhood is applied,the probability of precipitation(POP)is significantly increased over Zhengzhou.While the traditional POP shows almost no skill for hourly rainfall≥25 mm h-1,the neighborhood POP significantly improves the forecast skill score,for both daily and hourly rainfall,suggesting higher predictability when spatial error among the ensemble members is allowed. | Kefeng ZHU Chenyue ZHANG Ming XUE Nan YANG | 2022 | Science China Earth Sciences2022，65，10： | 1 |
| 4 | 多物理过程对流可分辨集合预报中不同方案在四川盆地东部降水预报效果评估显示文摘利用四川盆地东部站点观测数据和对流可分辨集合预报系统模式数据,评估了该系统各成员及不同物理过程参数化方案在2017—2019年4—9月的降水预报效果。结果表明:概率匹配平均和集合平均相比于各个集合成员存在明显的预报优势。Kain-Fritsch(KF)和Betts-Miller-Janjic(BMJ)积云参数化方案的预报效果相对较好,Grell 3D ensemble(G3)方案在48 h之后的临界成功指数(critical success index,CSI)评分偏低。Thompson和Morrison微物理参数化方案对小雨量级降水的预报效果较好,WRF Single-Moment 6-class(WSM6)方案对中雨量级降水的预报效果较好,三种方案对大雨和暴雨量级降水的预报效果相当。Mellor-Yamada-Janjic(MYJ)和Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino(MYNN)边界层方案的CSI评分相对较高,Yonsei University(YSU)方案在48 h之后的预报评分较低,但YSU方案多和G3方案搭配使用,其评分偏低主要受G3方案影响。各参数化方案均能把握四川盆地东部的降水分布特征,但对华蓥山、武陵山和大娄山的降水存在高估,对渝中至渝东北的降水存在低估。四川盆地东部的降水预报对积云参数化方案最为敏感。将一个成员的G3方案调整为KF方案后,降水预报评分显著提升,且集合离散度有所增加,概率预报技巧得到提高。 | 叶茂 吴钲 高松 陈贵川 翟丹华 | 2022 | 气象2022，48，7： | 1 |
| 5 | A Heavy Rainfall Event in Autumn over Beijing--Atmospheric Circulation Background and Hindcast Simulation Using WRF显示文摘Heavy rainfall events often occur in Beijing during summer but rarely in autumn. However,during 3-5 September2015, an exceptionally heavy rainfall event occurred in Beijing. Based on the reanalysis data and the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model simulations, the main contributing factors and the predictability of this heavy rainfall event were examined through comprehensive analyses of vorticity advection and water vapor transport/budget. The results indicate that a 'high-in-the-east-low-in-the-west' pattern of 500-hPa geopotential height over the Beijing area played an important role. The 850-hPa low-level jet(LLJ) provided a mechanism for rising motion and transported abundant water vapor into the Beijing area. Two-way nested hindcast experiments using WRF well reproduced the atmospheric circulation and LLJ. Quantitative analysis indicates that the WRF model with the rapid update cycle(RUC) land surface scheme and the single-moment 6-class(WSM6) microphysics scheme exhibited the best skill, and the model performance improved with a higher resolution. Further analysis indicates that the bias in the precipitation forecast was caused by the bias in water vapor transport. | Xiangrui LI Ke FAN Entao YU | 2018 | Journal of Meteorological Research2018，32，3： | 1 |
| 6 | Comparison of different land-surface perturbation methods in short-range ensemble forecasts显示文摘为了比较不同陆面扰动方法对短时集合预报的影响,本研究设计了陆面模式扰动实验(LSMPE),初始土壤湿度扰动实验(ISMPE),陆面-大气耦合系数扰动实验(LCCPE)以及大气扰动对照实验(GEFSPE).结果表明,在三组陆面扰动实验中,LSMPE能代表最大的不确定性且误差最小;ISMPE的离散度要比LCCPE稍大,但是耦合系数的减弱能有效降低区域平均降水量.然而,所有陆面扰动实验产生的离散度均小于GEFSPE,这表明未来有必要将陆面扰动与大气扰动相结合,以使得模式能代表更多的不确定性. | Zhibo Gao Jiangshan Zhu Yan Guo Xiaodong Yan Xiujuan Wang Huoqing Li Shuwen Li | 2021 | Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters2021，14，3： | 0 |
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