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| 1 | 基于多主体混合互补模型的天然气市场化改革模拟与评估显示文摘随着油气行业市场化改革走向纵深,天然气产业迎来新的机遇与挑战.为探究中国天然气市场化改革的潜在影响,本文采用多主体建模方法,融合混合互补模型,构建包含供气商、管输商、储气商和消费者在内的天然气市场多主体混合互补系统,并以区域性的天然气市场湖北省为例,模拟和评估其在放松价格管制、管网第三方准入、储气设施完善等不同情景下的天然气市场化改革效果.结果显示:在完全取消价格管制后,天然气终端消费市场价格上涨,需求减少.随着管网第三方准入的实施,管道利用率提高,输配成本降低,终端市场消费价格涨幅放缓,上下游价格差距缩小;同时,随着储气设施投入运营,用气旺季的需求缺口可以得到补充,需求淡旺季价格差有效降低.根据社会总福利的变化,可以发现,目前推进的天然气市场化改革措施具有积极效果,特别是国家管网公司的成立和大规模储气设施的投资建设,将可以提高天然气输配效率,平抑价格波动,但在价格规制层面,还需逐步放开,否则短期面临气价上涨压力,不利激发天然气需求增长. | 龚承柱 龚年姣 吴德胜 於世为 | 2022 | 系统工程理论与实践2022，42，2： | 2 |
| 2 | Review on the petroleum market in China:history,challenges and prospects显示文摘The petroleum industry plays an essential role in driving China's economic development.In the past few decades,severa reforms in the petroleum industry have been implemented;however,there are still some is sues that have not been resolved Moreover,with the new-normal economy,the transition to green energy and international trade disputes,the petroleum marke is also facing emerging challenges.Therefore,the purpose of the present study is to review the historical development o China's petroleum market,identify the current challenges and propose corresponding countermeasures for future prospects As a conclusion,five main challenges are highlighted totally,namely lack of marketization,excess oil refining capacity,hig external dependency,environment pollution and unstable international trading relationship.To address these challenges it is encouraged to deepen petroleum market reform,accelerate the elimination of inefficient refining capacity,diversify of supply sources,as well as improve domestic petroleum enterprises'ability to resist price risks. | Si-Yuan Chen Qi Zhang Benjamin Mclellan Tian-Tian Zhang | 2020 | Petroleum Science2020，17，6： | 1 |
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