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| 1 | 应用灰色模糊马尔科夫链预测海河水质变化趋势显示文摘灰色 GM(1,1)模型在水质预测中得到了较为广泛的运用,但其存在灰色偏差与抗干扰能力弱的局限性,针对这一问题,将马尔科夫链理论与模糊集合理论引入灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,并应用该模型对海河三岔口断面的DO、CODMn和NH3-N 3项指标2012-2016年的浓度变化趋势进行预测.结果表明,2004-2016年,DO及NH3-N浓度大致呈上升趋势,预计2016年分别可达9.15,1.47mg/L;CODMn浓度呈下降趋势,预计2016年可达3.91mg/L.以2012年的数据做验证,灰色模糊马尔科夫链模型的预测精度最高,可作为科学的水质预测方法. | 于慧 孙宝盛 李亚楠 张燕 齐庚申 | 2014 | 中国环境科学2014，34，3： | 26 |
| 2 | 区域水资源介循环利用模式:概念·结构·特征显示文摘为解决我国面临的突出水环境问题,破解经济发展需求与水资源短缺、水环境污染和水生态破坏之间的矛盾,提出区域水资源'介循环'(water meta-cycle)利用模式,系统地阐述了区域水资源介循环利用模式的结构特征、基本特点和目标定位,并通过案例分析了其适用效果.介循环是一种人工强化生态调控的区域水资源多阶多元循环利用模式.通过企业、家庭和社区等局部单元内的水循环利用,工业和城市等社会系统尺度内的污水再生处理与直接利用,以及区域层面上再生水的生态媒介循环利用(water natural system-mediated reuse)等,促进不同层阶和不同用途水循环利用的有机衔接与耦合,实现再生水的安全聪巧(safe and smart)利用、区域尺度上水资源的闭环循环利用和趋零排放.区域水资源介循环利用模式以再生水的生态媒介循环利用为核心,具有闭环趋零、多阶多元、强化调控和复合高效等特点,有望成为区域水资源可持续管理、保障水环境安全的有效模式. | 胡洪营 石磊 许春华 李锋民 | 2015 | 环境科学研究2015，28，6： | 20 |
| 3 | Water demand forecasting of Beijing using the Time Series Forecasting Method显示文摘建立水资源利用并且利用计划是必要的,它主要基于认出并且预报水讲道理地并且科学地消费了结构。在过去的 30 年(19802009 ) 期间,分别地,当全部的水消费历史上在一样的时期期间到达了尖顶时,吝啬的年度降水和北京的全部的水资源与那些长期的价值相比在 6.89% 和 31.37% 减少了。因此,它具有为在社会经济的开发和环境开发之间的和谐的大意义。把消费的水的水消费,农业、工业、国内、环境的水消费,和进化组织的总数基于分析,全部的水消费和水的进化的进一步的驱动力消费了结构系统地被揭示。预言和讨论为全部的水消费的进化被完成,水在不久的将来用时间系列预报北京消费了水资源的结构,和供应要求状况方法。这份报纸的努力的目的是为在 socio 经济和水资源之间的和谐开发提供科学基础,为水资源的合理战略计划的建立,并且为有科学的库的北京的社会持续开发。 | ZHAI Yuanzheng | 2012 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2012，22，5： | 15 |
| 4 | 海河流域平原区浅层地下水超采量估算显示文摘收集整理了海河流域平原区浅层各省市几种来源的地下水位数据,利用ARCGIS技术,矢量化《华北平原地下水可持续利用图集》作出1959年、1984年、2005年6月地下水等水位图,利用《中国地质环境监测地下水位年鉴》2005年-2013年末及2005年6月数据,计算了时段变化率,推算出2005年-2013年地下水等水位图,并利用"华北平原地下水演变机制与调控项目"地下水位数据对估算水位进行检验,说明推算的地下水位分布是可靠的,进一步结合地下水开采漏斗和含水层给水度对超采量进行了估算。计算结果表明,1959年-2013年,海河流域平原区浅层地下水累计超采979.45×10^8 m^3,水位平均下降9.62m。其中1959年-1984年年均超采16.34×10^8 m^3,水位平均累计下降3.93m、年均下降0.141m;1984年-2005年年均超采21.21×10^8 m^3,水位平均累计下降6.28m、年均下降0.299m;2005年-2013年年均超采15.67×10^8 m^3,水位平均累计下降1.05m、年均下降0.131m,2010年以后已呈平稳状态。超采漏斗主要存在于山前地区且用水量较大的城市,尤以子牙河平原西部石家庄、邢台一带最为严重。 | 贾绍凤 李媛媛 吕爱锋 严家宝 | 2016 | 河南水利与南水北调2016，0，4： | 13 |
| 5 | Integrated simulation of the dualistic water cycle and its associated processes in the Haihe River Basin显示文摘Water resource shortages, water environmental deterioration, and water ecological degradation are becoming increasingly prominent in the Haihe River Basin under the effects of global climate change and intense human activity. Finding ways to solve these problems reasonably is an urgent task in basin water resources management. The water cycle describes the formation and transformation of every water drop, while it interacts with associated water ecology and water environment processes. Therefore, to fundamentally solve the above problems, the three processes must be combined and the evolutionary trends of the ecology and water environment driven by the water cycle must be determined. To comprehensively diagnose and solve the problems of water resources, ecology and water environment in the basin, an integrated simulation platform of the dualistic water cycle and its associated processes in the Haihe River Basin was established by fully analyzing the 'natural-social' dualistic characteristics of the evolution of the basin water cycle in this study. Accordingly, it is a supporting tool to evaluate the future trends of water resources, ecology and the water environment by setting scenarios based on the predictions of a climate mode and water control conditions. The results show that with climate change, the water consumption, groundwater overexploitation, and the amount of water flowing to the sea could develop soundly and satisfy the requirements of national economic growth in the future planning year 2030 through the implementation of water consumption control management and the South-North Water Diversion Project. Meanwhile, associated water environmental deterioration can be alleviated, and a growing trend for production capacities of the natural ecosystem and agro-ecosystem is seen. The above results provide a foundation for implementing basin water resources regulation and the most strict water resources management. | WANG Hao JIA YangWen YANG GuiYu ZHOU ZuHao QIU YaQin NIU CunWen PENG Hui | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，27： | 10 |
| 6 | 多源水联合调度重构滇池流域健康水循环模式显示文摘河湖生态用水被挤占并严重短缺是滇池水污染严重和恶化趋势难以遏制的根本原因之一.在对滇池流域'自然人工'二元水循环结构剖析的基础上,结合滇池治理'六大工程'实施现状及存在问题,以水资源的高效配置和循环利用为核心,提出了重构滇池流域健康水循环的总体框架.在水资源模拟系统MIKE BASIN平台上,通过水力联系将环湖截污、外流域调水与节水、入湖河道整治、农业农村面源治理、生态修复、生态清淤等整合为一个有机整体,以恢复流域自然水系循环为目标,将外流域引调水与本区水库水、滇池水、地下水、城市再生水等多源水资源进行水量和水质统一配置,得到滇池流域水资源总体配置方案.结果表明:在牛栏江向滇池年均补水5.72亿m3的前提下,昆明城市尾水可以全部直接外排至下游作为工业用水,削减滇池入湖污染负荷,从而加速滇池生态环境修复的进程. | 陈刚 桑学锋 顾世祥 杨霄 周祖昊 李游洋 | 2018 | 湖泊科学2018，30，1： | 10 |
| 7 | 基于河湖生态健康的滇池流域水资源总体配置显示文摘在流域水问题诊断的基础上,提出了滇池流域多水源联合调度构建流域健康水循环的总体框架。基于滇池流域相关区域的现状水资源开发利用现状调查,结合区域城市发展和产业布局的调整、滇池及其入湖河流生态景观等对水资源需求,采用MIKE BASIN作为技术工具,研究了滇池流域多水源水质水量联合调度的水资源配置方案,并提出了相应的水系连通的工程方案。在保障滇池生态修复补水和昆明城市生活生产用水的前提下,通过外调水、本区水、城市再生水的多源水联合调度,构建了滇池流域'清水入湖、中水回用、清污分流'的健康水循环模式,以便削减滇池入湖污染负荷,支撑滇池水质的持续改善。 | 陈刚 杨霄 顾世祥 邓雯 周密 | 2016 | 水利水电技术2016，47，2： | 7 |
| 8 | 基于河湖水系连通的高原湖泊水资源优化模拟显示文摘基于对滇池流域及下游螳螂川区间的现状水资源开发利用、生态用水调查,结合区域社会经济发展、生态景观等的水资源需求,考虑牛栏江-滇池补水工程、滇中引水工程等不同层次的河湖水系连通工程,优化配置宝象河、柴河等当地水库、当地引提水工程及城市再生水跨区域利用工程,建立MIKE BASIN水资源优化模拟模型,设置不同的水系连通工程供水方案组合,采用公平性最优和供水缺水率最小作为水资源优化配置的目标函数,对模拟结果进行评价。结果表明,2030年本区河湖水系连通工程加入后缺水率由51.63%降到48.6%,滇中引水工程加入后,缺水率进一步减小至0.8%,随着河湖水系连通工程的逐步完善,区域供水保障程度越来越高,区域间的供水公平性越来越好,河湖水系连通工程对减小区域缺水率、实现区域间及行业间的供水公平、保障河湖生态起到了重要作用。 | 杨霄 陈刚 桑学锋 顾世祥 周祖昊 | 2016 | 中国农村水利水电2016，，9： | 7 |
| 9 | Integrated simulation and assessment of water quantity and quality for a river under changing environmental conditions显示文摘The water cycle and water resources within river basins under changing environmental conditions undergo profound changes, which have significant effects on the water environment of the river. Owing to the water resources demanded for economic and social development, water quantity and quality are becoming the core constraints of water resources development and utilization. In this paper, the dual attributes of water resources, progress into research regarding water quantity and quality joint assessment and simulation and the shortcomings associated with these techniques are summarized and described with respect to water quantity and quality. The results indicated that under the current environmental conditions, the method used for traditional water quality assessment of single water bodies cannot meet the requirements for water resources management. Moreover, a coupled hydrodynamic and water quality numerical model for river networks and lakes that applies to the river water environment system was developed for the river network flow and pollutant migration and transformation process and validated. This validation revealed that the error between the simulated values calculated by the model and the monitored values was small, meeting the application requirements and realizing the integrated and dynamic simulation of water quantity and quality of the river water environmental system. On this basis, the integrated simulation model was applied to the Luanhe River Basin. | WANG JianHua XIAO WeiHua WANG Hao CHAI ZengKai NIU CunWen LI Wei | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，27： | 7 |
| 10 | 城市水资源需求场理论及应用初探显示文摘随着人类社会的发展进步及城市化进程的加快,人类活动对水资源的需求日益增加.水循环也从最初的自然水循环演变成'自然-社会'二元水循环.二元水循环理论的提出,为水文水资源学科的发展指明了新方向.迄今为止仍然没有统一的数理公式对二元水循环过程进行精确描述.本研究以城市为重点,深入剖析了社会经济用水需求对水循环的干扰和驱动原理,通过类比物理学中的麦克斯韦方程组,初步定义了城市水资源需求场——'水场'的概念,提出了城市'水场'强度的计算公式.以海河流域22个主要城市为例,应用水场强度计算公式定量描述了海河流域的水场强度,分析了水资源的流动趋势.结果表明,水场强度公式能够较好地描述城市水资源的驱动力和流动趋势. | 陈似蓝 刘家宏 王浩 | 2016 | 科学通报2016，61，13： | 6 |
| 11 | Theoretical framework of dualistic nature–social water cycle显示文摘The global climate change and intensification of human activities in recent decades have made profound changes in hydrological cycle processes and water resources,and produced serious water problems and water crisis in many areas.The main reason is that the driving force of water cycle,the structure of water cycle,and the parameters of water cycle have dualistically evolved under the influence of human activities,and consequently resulted in reduction of runoff water resources,water pollution,and degradation of natural ecosystems.In order to realize of the safety aim of water supply,water environment,and ecosystem in area which is short of water resources,scientific regulation of water resources must take basin water cycle system as the unified base,and the first scientific basis is the awareness of the internal mechanism and law of water cycle evolution under highly intensive human activities.This article discussed four aspects of dualistic water cycle evolution,including its history in China,its theory,its characteristics in a typical basin,and its description of integral structure,along with the conceptive model system to quantify it.This article can be a reference to the basic cognition of water cycle evolution in a changing environment,and the study of water resources reduction reasons in the contemporary age. | Dayong Qin Chuiyu Lu Jiahong Liu Hao Wang Jianhua Wang Haihong Li Junyin Chu Genfa Chen | 2014 | Chinese Science Bulletin2014，59，8： | 5 |
| 12 | 流域水循环系统多维调控方案的评价与优选显示文摘分析水循环系统在'自然-社会'二元驱动下产生的五维属性,利用熵理论与协同学理论对水循环系统多维调控方案进行评价与比选:选取各维属性特征值作为调控方案的评价指标(序参量),建立评价指标与水循环系统五维属性间的量化关系;提出单一方案系统协调度评价指标与组合方案有序度综合距离评价指标,评价和比选单一调控方案和组合调控方案的水循环系统整体调控效果,确定较优的单一调控方案与组合调控方案。以海河流域为例,验证所提出的水循环系统多维调控方案评价与优选方法的可行性。 | 徐凯 汪林 甘治国 季海萍 | 2014 | 河海大学学报(自然科学版)2014，42，2： | 5 |
| 13 | 京津冀协同发展背景下的县域水资源安全诊断显示文摘本文构建了以县域为基本单元的水资源安全诊断方法体系,开展了京津冀一体化格局初步形成的社会经济发展和需水量预测,测算了多年平均径流量和近、远期调水量,诊断了多情景组合的水资源安全情势。研究表明:一体化情景下,京津冀地区在维持经济社会快速发展的前提下,区域需水总量将得到有效控制,需水结构不断优化;无调水时,大部分县域水资源压力较大,中南部县域尤为突出;随着调水工程增补,水资源压力明显缓解,但缺水性质未发生根本变化;考虑远期规划调水,京津冀地区仍有近半数县(区)受到不同程度的缺水影响,缺水量约为41亿m^(3)/a。深入推进区域协同、高质量发展,开源和节流并举是不断提升水资源安全保障能力的有效途径。 | 李想 郭丹红 刘家宏 尹冬勤 李志威 许凤冉 邵薇薇 | 2021 | 水利水电技术(中英文)2021，52，10： | 4 |
| 14 | Multi-dimensional overall regulatory modes and threshold values for water cycle of the Haihe River Basin显示文摘In this study, a multi-dimensional critical regulatory criteria and decision-making mechanism based on the scientific cognition of multi-dimensional attributes and characteristics of the water cycle was proposed. This system was functioned by deeply discriminating the nature-society binary characteristics of the five-dimensional characteristics of the water cycle system of the Haihe River Basin (water resources, economy, society, ecology, and environment) under the influence of high-intensity human activities and hydrological changes and by analyzing the organic interactive relationships between the five dimensions and their overall effect on the water cycle. A GDP calculation model was constructed in this study by adjusting the water environment for water resources, after which five-dimensional normalization objective functions were established for multi-objective analysis to carry out trade-off analysis of multi-dimensional regulatory indexes. In addition, synergetic theory, entropy theory and dissipation structure theory were introduced to construct an evaluation model for multi-dimensional regulatory schemes. A water cycle multi-dimensional critical overall regulatory model system was also established. This system consisted of a multi-objective macroeconomic model (DAMOS), water resource allocation model based on rules (ROWAS), evaluation model for WEDP (EMW) and multi-dimensional regulatory scheme evaluation model (SEAMUR) as the main body. To address the national demands faced by the Haihe River Basin as a result of combinatorial schemes for different hydrological series and water amounts diverted by the south-to-north water diversion project, this study adopted a hierarchy progression method to set up the technologies, investigated multi-dimensional overall regulatory methods, proposed an overall regulation threshold value for the water cycle of the Haihe River Basin, and recommended corresponding five-dimensional regulatory schemes. | GAN Hong WANG Lin CAO YinBai YOU JinJun GAN ZhiGuo QIN ChangHai HE Shan XU Kai | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，27： | 4 |
| 15 | Zoning assessment of water environmental supporting capacity for socioeconomic development in the Huaihe River Basin, China显示文摘在在 Huaihe 河盆(HRB ) 的 humanwater 关系中有实质的冲突。没有降级,完成持续经济开发在 HRB 的水环境,我们开发三维的水环境支持能力(WESC ) 基于水为环境带能力(WECC ) 建模,浇环境压力(WEP ) ,并且浇污染预防和控制能力(WPPC ) 。地理信息系统有分析层次过程方法和动态加权的求和的空间分析被使用。为为工业的合适的地点和为水的环境保护策略的几个建议被介绍。下列结果被获得。(1 ) 在 WECC 的空间差别是实质的;有高值的 WECC 地区的区域主要沿着 Huaihe 河的主要溪流位于南方方面。WEP 通常高,与在整个 HRB 的污染预防和控制的全面底层。WPPC 和 WEP 显示出由于有更高环境的污染的区域通常有经济开发的高水平的事实的高空间的重叠,并且因此为污染控制有一个强壮的能力。(2 ) 总的来说, WESC 在 HRB 是中等的。特别地,有高 WESC 价值的区域仅仅在 2010 说明 56.24% HRB。在 WESC 的不同差别也在位于南方与相比的区域之间存在在盆,和区域的北方在下游的区域与相比在在上游并且中流区域。(3 ) 因而根据为在 HRB 的工业 zoning 的指导,在南方并且在的区域下游并且有低 WEP 值和高 WECC 和 WPPC 的亚溪流,传统的工业应该基于严格的环境存取和污染排放标准被开发。当为沿着 HRB 的中流并且沿着整个 Yishusi 河盆,有高 WEP 价值,的区域工业重构并且工艺的升级被建议时。措施应该在被采取限制开发并且在盆的在上游的区域保护环境,它是喝水的关键来源,在沿着 South-to-North 水转向工程的线的东方线路,并且在生态地易碎的区域盆。,这将包括干净的水的实际存在的预备保证好环境功能同时令人满意调整,转变,并且升级工业结构的迫切需要。 | ZHOU Liang SUN Dongqi XU Jiangang | 2015 | Journal of Geographical Sciences2015，25，10： | 4 |
| 16 | Water cycle evolution in the Haihe River Basin in the past 10000 years显示文摘The water shortage problem in the Haihe River Basin is the most severe in China, and has restricted its economic development. Over-extraction of groundwater has been very severe in the past 30 years. To solve this problem, scientific decisions should be made from a historical perspective. It is important to describe water cycle evolution in the Haihe River basin over the past 10000 years. Datasets of paleoclimate, paleogeography, palynoflora, historical record, isotopic abundance ratio and content were collected for research on different time scales. Some interesting conclusions were drawn by a comprehensive analysis method. First, radiation was the intrinsic force driving the evolution of water cycle. Generally, precipitation increased with temperature. Second, precipitation was high during 8 ka-5 ka B.P., the so-called Yangshao warm period of the Middle Holocene, which recharged the major part of the Quaternary groundwater. Third, heavy floods during this period transported sediment to the seaside, forming the Coastal Plain where cities such as Tianjin, Huanghua, Cangzhou are now located. In the last 3000 years, intermittent moderate floods did not have enough energy to transport sediment to the sea. Rivers usually overflowed in the piedmont region of the Taihang Mountains, and sediment deposited there formed the Piedmont Plain, where locate Shijiazhuang, Xingtai, Handan, Baoding and other cities. Precipitation had a high correlation with temperature in Haihe River Basin in the past 10000 years: the high temperature usually coupled with high precipitation. Today precipitation in the Haihe River Basin is relatively low, owing to low temperature. This study reveals the relationship between temperature, precipitation and river networks in the past 10000 years in Haihe River Basin, which has great scientific and practical importance in understanding the current water circulation and water shortage. | LIU JiaHong XU He QIN DaYong WANG Hao WANG JianHua LI HaiHong BAO ShuJun | 2013 | Chinese Science Bulletin2013，58，27： | 3 |
| 17 | 滏阳河典型河段沿河垃圾分布及河岸垃圾氨氮入河研究显示文摘针对海河流域汛期降雨淋溶和冲刷作用使沿岸垃圾中氨氮大量入河现象,选择滏阳河典型河段牛尾河、北澧河作为研究对象,对沿岸垃圾存量及堆放位置、垃圾种类进行实地调查,选择具有代表性的厨余垃圾和秸秆垃圾在不同条件下进行模拟降雨实验,研究沿河垃圾氨氮入河通量及其影响因素.结果表明,牛尾河、北澧河沿河垃圾分布与沿河村落分布基本一致,主要分布在牛尾河郊区段、牛尾河任县段及北澧河段上游,牛尾河郊区段垃圾分布呈现量大且分布集中的特点,占研究区域垃圾总量的60.9%,北澧河段垃圾存量较小且分布松散,占垃圾总量的18.1%,垃圾类型以生活垃圾为主,堆放在沿河两岸;模拟30°岸坡厨余垃圾较夯实土壤情况和模拟15°岸坡厨余垃圾较夯实土壤情况垃圾氨氮入河通量接近,分别为0.233 mg·mm-1·m-3和0.236 mg·mm-1·m-3,说明河岸角度对垃圾氨氮入河通量影响较小.模拟30°河岸厨余垃圾着重夯实土壤垃圾氨氮入河通量为0.196 mg·mm-1·m-3,说明土壤密实度通过影响下渗流量和下渗浓度对垃圾氨氮入河量有一定影响.模拟30°河岸秸秆垃圾较夯实土壤情况垃圾氨氮入河通量最小,为0.0533 mg·mm-1·m-3,说明秸秆垃圾氨氮入河贡献量小于厨余垃圾.本研究首次通过室内模拟的方式定量分析了傍河垃圾氨氮入河通量,为北方河网区域傍河垃圾氨氮入河通量的精确定量计算提供了重要参考. | 郎超 单保庆 李思敏 张文强 张超 宋志鑫 | 2016 | 环境科学学报2016，36，8： | 1 |
| 18 | 1961-2010年海河流域水汽输送与变化特征分析显示文摘本文运用NCEP/NCAI潺分析数据,计算分析了海河流域整层大气水汽含量即可降水量、纬向输送水汽通量、经向输送水汽通量以及流域的四个边界水汽通量的季节变化和年代际变化特征。结果表明:近50年来海河流域整层大气可降水量呈减小趋势,并于2009年降到近50年的最低值,夏季大气可降水量高于其他季节;经向和纬向水汽输送通量年际变化均呈减小趋势,但纬向水汽输送方向全年由西向东,而经向水汽输送方向冬半年为由北向南,夏半年由南向北;海河流域的水汽收支代际变化均为输入,但总体上呈下降趋势,且夏季水汽输入多于其他季节,水汽收支主要受经向水汽输送的影响,且受到东亚夏季风和中纬度西风带自西向东的水汽输送控制。 | 平凡 刘强 贾炳浩 | 2015 | 水资源研究2015，4，3： | 0 |
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